Demand Projections. Due to the successful marketing of several industrial properties in Newton County, water demand projections have increased significantly. The Newton County Strategic Water Plan Forecasts and Capacity Evaluations (Strategic Plan), completed by ▇▇▇▇▇▇ & ▇▇▇▇▇▇ in 2019, includes detailed population growth projections along with water and wastewater projections and potential upgrades to address capacity needs. Since the Strategic Plan was completed, water demand projections communicated by major industries, such as Takeda and Rivian (future industry), have fluctuated. Using best available data, demand projections were updated for the OWRA using the following methods and assumptions: • New residential water demands were developed based on updated Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget (OPB) population projections and using the same water usage metrics identified in the Strategic Plan. • Rivian demands were updated to a minimum potable demand at buildout of 2.0 million gallons per day (MGD), assuming reuse water production is maximized. Total maximum potable water demand will be 4.1 MGD at buildout if no reuse water is available. In November of 2023, ▇▇▇▇▇▇ provided the anticipated demand and flows shown in Table 3. Based on the April 2024 news that ▇▇▇▇▇▇ has indefinitely delayed construction of their Newton County facility, the schedule shown in Error! Unknown switch argument. was adjusted by 18 months for demand projection development. Potable Water 0.19 0.37 2.0 Peak Daily Reuse Water 0.22 0.80 2.1 Avg. Daily 3.1 Peak Daily Sanitary Sewer 0.08 0.13 0.68 • A master plan provided by the IDA for the ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ ▇▇▇▇▇ site from June 2020 was used to estimate a potential water demand of 0.3 MGD. Land use demand projections were based on water use data provided by the City of Covington for similar developments on Hazelbrand Road at I-20. • Water demands and sewer flow projections provided by Takeda indicate a consumptive loss of between 5 – 10%, which is unusually low. As such 20% consumptive loss was used for this study based on other historically observed usage. Correspondence from Takeda indicates that water demand and wastewater flows will reach buildout conditions by 2030 and be as follows: o Potable demand: 1.0 MGD o Potential reuse demand: 0.33 MGD o Industrial wastewater flows: 0.85 MGD o Sanitary sewer flows: 0.15 MGD • NCWR is working on a project to upgrade the Cornish Creek WTP to 39.5 MGD max daily demand (MDD), 27 MGD annual average day (AAD) with an anticipated completion in early 2027. At this point, it was unclear how much reuse water demand may exist in the near future and how much flow may be available to support reuse production. However, industries in ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ Springs as well as existing and potential industries serves by the City of Covington have expressed interest in utilizing reuse water to meet their sustainability goals. Therefore, a minimum and maximum demand was identified for both Rivian and Takeda to identify the minimum and maximum amount of potable water that may need to be provided, based on the amount of reuse water the industries have indicated they are willing to take. Water demand projections for industrial and larger development projects are included in Appendix A. In addition, Walton County is pursuing development of their own water plant to treat water from their Hard Labor Creek Reservoir. Based on this, NCWR is anticipating that Walton County, which is currently allocated 6.25 MGD from NCWR, would substantially reduce their water demand from Cornish Creek after 2053, when the current contract expires. It may be difficult for Walton County to supply demands for some of the southernmost portion of their system near the connection point on SR 81, so NCWR requested that demand projections assume 2.0 MGD will be necessary for Walton County after 2054. Actual industrial growth will be affected by economic changes and technological advancements and should therefore be monitored closely. Regarding residential growth, OPB population projections, which are often used for water demand modeling may not adequately account for effects of various industry sectors. The Economic Policy Institute released Updated employment multipliers for the U.S. economy on January 23, 2019, which indicated that for every durable goods manufacturing job, up to 7 additional jobs may be created and for automotive manufacturing jobs, up to 14 additional jobs may be created. Since Rivian is not a traditional automotive manufacturer, it is unclear what their impact may be and how many of those additional jobs would be held by persons relying on water produced by NCWR, but it is possible that the OPB residential projections for Newton County may be low. As such, it is recommended to also keep a close watch on residential growth. Total water demand estimates are summarized in Table 4. Min. AAD 19.9 27.6 31.5 32.8 33.8 34.9 31.7 32.5 33.5 34.7 35.5 Max. AAD 20.6 28.9 34.1 35.4 36.4 37.8 34.3 35.1 36.1 37.3 38.1 Min. MDD 24.4 33.2 38.2 39.7 41.0 42.4 39.2 40.1 41.4 42.8 43.8 Max. MDD 25.3 34.9 42.4 44.0 45.3 46.7 43.4 44.3 45.7 47.1 48.1
Appears in 1 contract
Sources: Collaborative Agreement
Demand Projections. Due to the successful marketing of several industrial properties in Newton County, water demand projections have increased significantly. The Newton County Strategic Water Plan Forecasts and Capacity Evaluations (Strategic Plan), completed by ▇▇▇▇▇▇ & ▇▇▇▇▇▇ in 2019, includes detailed population growth projections along with water and wastewater projections and potential upgrades to address capacity needs. Since the Strategic Plan was completed, water demand projections communicated by major industries, such as Takeda and Rivian (future industry), have fluctuated. Using best available data, demand projections were updated for the OWRA using the following methods and assumptions: • New residential water demands were developed based on updated Georgia Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget (OPB) population projections and using the same water usage metrics identified in the Strategic Plan. • Rivian demands were updated to a minimum potable demand at buildout of 2.0 million gallons per day (MGD), assuming reuse water production is maximized. Total maximum potable water demand will be 4.1 MGD at buildout if no reuse water is available. In November of 2023, ▇▇▇▇▇▇ provided the anticipated demand and flows shown in Table 3. Based on the April 2024 news that ▇▇▇▇▇▇ has indefinitely delayed construction of their Newton County facility, the schedule shown in Error! Unknown switch argument. Table 3 was adjusted by 18 months for demand projection development. Potable Water 0.19 0.37 2.0 Peak Daily Reuse Water 0.22 0.80 2.1 Avg. Daily 3.1 Peak Daily Sanitary Sewer 0.08 0.13 0.68 • A master plan provided by the IDA for the ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ ▇▇▇▇▇ site from June 2020 was used to estimate a potential water demand of 0.3 MGD. Land use demand projections were based on water use data provided by the City of Covington for similar developments on Hazelbrand Road at I-20. • Water demands and sewer flow projections provided by Takeda indicate a consumptive loss of between 5 – 10%, which is unusually low. As such 20% consumptive loss was used for this study based on other historically observed usage. Correspondence from Takeda indicates that water demand and wastewater flows will reach buildout conditions by 2030 and be as follows: o Potable demand: 1.0 MGD o Potential reuse demand: 0.33 MGD o Industrial wastewater flows: 0.85 MGD o Sanitary sewer flows: 0.15 MGD • NCWR is working on a project to upgrade the Cornish Creek WTP to 39.5 MGD max daily demand (MDD), 27 MGD annual average day (AAD) with an anticipated completion in early 2027. At this point, it was unclear how much reuse water demand may exist in the near future and how much flow may be available to support reuse production. However, industries in ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ Springs as well as existing and potential industries serves by the City of Covington have expressed interest in utilizing reuse water to meet their sustainability goals. Therefore, a minimum and maximum demand was identified for both Rivian and Takeda to identify the minimum and maximum amount of potable water that may need to be provided, based on the amount of reuse water the industries have indicated they are willing to take. Water demand projections for industrial and larger development projects are included in Appendix A. In addition, Walton County is pursuing development of their own water plant to treat water from their Hard Labor Creek Reservoir. Based on this, NCWR is anticipating that Walton County, which is currently allocated 6.25 MGD from NCWR, would substantially reduce their water demand from Cornish Creek after 2053, when the current contract expires. It may be difficult for Walton County to supply demands for some of the southernmost portion of their system near the connection point on SR 81, so NCWR requested that demand projections assume 2.0 MGD will be necessary for Walton County after 2054. Actual industrial growth will be affected by economic changes and technological advancements and should therefore be monitored closely. Regarding residential growth, OPB population projections, which are often used for water demand modeling may not adequately account for effects of various industry sectors. The Economic Policy Institute released Updated employment multipliers for the U.S. economy on January 23, 2019, which indicated that for every durable goods manufacturing job, up to 7 additional jobs may be created and for automotive manufacturing jobs, up to 14 additional jobs may be created. Since Rivian is not a traditional automotive manufacturer, it is unclear what their impact may be and how many of those additional jobs would be held by persons relying on water produced by NCWR, but it is possible that the OPB residential projections for Newton County may be low. As such, it is recommended to also keep a close watch on residential growth. Total water demand estimates are summarized in Table 4. Min. AAD 19.9 27.6 31.5 32.8 33.8 34.9 31.7 32.5 33.5 34.7 35.5 Max. AAD 20.6 28.9 34.1 35.4 36.4 37.8 34.3 35.1 36.1 37.3 38.1 Min. MDD 24.4 33.2 38.2 39.7 41.0 42.4 39.2 40.1 41.4 42.8 43.8 Max. MDD 25.3 34.9 42.4 44.0 45.3 46.7 43.4 44.3 45.7 47.1 48.1
Appears in 1 contract
Sources: Collaborative Agreement