Demographic change Clause Samples

Demographic change. Demographic changes and the increasing elderly population in Scotland has had a huge impact on demand for orthopaedics, general surgery and endoscopy services over the last 10 years. Figure 10 provides an overview of the actual and forecast demographic changes for the population residing within the WoS Health Boards between 2005 and 2035. (Source: Office for National Statistics). Between 2005 and 2015, the WoS population increased by 2.8% (from 2,553,860 to 2,627,290) the number of people aged over 60 increased by 24% (from 551,195 to 684,601). The ageing population within the WoS has significantly increased demand for orthopaedic services over the last 10 years. Overall between 2015 and 2035 the population in the West of Scotland is forecast to grow by 1.6%, a population increase of 42,011 (increasing from 2,627,290 in 2015 to 2,699,301 by 2035). • The number of people aged 60 plus is predicted to increase by 34.8%, an increase of 218,670 people aged over 60 by 2035 • The number of people aged 70 plus is predicted to increase by 56%, an increase of 183,959 people aged over 70 by 2035 Figure 11 illustrates the actual and forecast increasing proportion of the population aged 60 plus and 70 plus between 2005 and 2035. The impact of such a large increase in people aged over 60 will have a significant impact in the demand for orthopaedics, general surgery ad endoscopy. Rising life expectancy is reflected in the population data used in the scenario modelling, however, it is important to note that life expectancy in the West of Scotland lags behind that of Scotland and the wider UK. It was not possible to obtain life expectancy data of patients who are currently aged 50 to 70 living within the WoS however Appendix A6 charts life expectancy of those born 2015 in each WoS Health Board area, Scotland as a whole, the UK and other countries. There are some significant differences, males born within NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde area are expected to live 4.1 years less when compared to the average life expectancy of men in the UK, similarly it is predicted that women living within NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde areas will live 2.9 years less than the UK average. This is illustrated in figure 16. Dumfries and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ 79.7 78.1 81.3 Forth Valley 79.4 77.7 81.1 Ayrshire and Arran 78.5 76.6 80.4 Lanarkshire 78.2 76.1 80.2 Greater Glasgow and ▇▇▇▇▇ 77.7 75.3 80.1

Demographic change. As has already been noted in section 4.2, projected future expenditure on lifelong learning is partly based on assumptions about future demographic change and it is clear that demographic changes have considerable implications for the lifelong learning sector as a whole. The UK, like nearly all European nations, is currently witnessing an ageing of its population, largely as a result of declining birth rates and increasing life expectancy. The UK’s total population is projected to increase from nearly 60 million today to around 69.5 million by the year 2054, an increase of around 15%. The vast majority of this increase will occur in England (projected increase of 19%). The population of Northern Ireland is projected to increase by only 5% in this period and in Scotland to decrease by 8%. In this context the projected population increase in Wales of 12% by 2054 is a significant increase (HM Treasury, 2005c).

Demographic change. In 2014, the population across the North Scotland was 1,397,420, which represent 26% of Scotland’s total population. The age groupings across the North Scotland health boards are compared to Scotland as a whole. North of Scotland 16.6% 63.6% 19.8% 1,397,420 Scotland 16.9% 64.6% 18.5% 5,404,700 Figure 21 demonstrates, at a high level, that North Scotland has an older population than Scotland as a whole. Population projections for North Scotland from 2014 to 2039 are shown in the table below. This demonstrates a projected increase in population of 8.8% between 2014 and 2039. North of Scotland 1,390,800 1,416,936 1,473,959 1,513,557 Scotland 5,347,600 5,427,982 5,595,826 5,701,476 Within this dataset, the projected population of those of a pensionable age is expected to increase in all North Scotland NHS Boards. Similarly, the percentage of population over 75 years is projected to increase dratically for each of the North Scotland NHS Boards. This profile is indicated on the graph below. Within Tayside, it is projected there will be 7.5% growth in the total population between 2014 and 2037. Furthermore, the population in Tayside over 65 years is projected to increase by 44.7%; over 75 years to increase by 76.1% and over 85 years 128.7%. The charts below highlight the projected changes within the three local authority areas in Tayside. The three local authority areas within Tayside are all projected to increase in population in particular the age groups 65 years plus. Life expectancy within Tayside is variable. Tayside as whole has a comparatively longer life expectancy to the rest of Scotland. Dundee City has the shortest life expectancy within Tayside; however Perth and Kinross and ▇▇▇▇▇ both have longer life expectancies than Dundee and when compared to the rest of Scotland. Perth and ▇▇▇▇▇▇▇ has the longest life expectancy in Tayside.

Demographic change. As has already been noted in section 4.2, projected future expenditure on lifelong learning is partly based on assumptions about future demographic change and it is clear that demographic changes have considerable implications for the lifelong learning sector as a whole. While the population of the UK as a whole is expected to increase by around 15% between 2004 and 2054, the population in Scotland is expected to decrease by around 8%, with declining fertility rates and poorer life expectancy outweighing the positive effects of net migration (HM Treasury, 2005c). Within the UK, differences in the underlying growth rates of the different age groups will also result in a considerably altered population structure. Whilst the numbers of children and those within younger age groups are expected to remain relatively stable, those aged 55–64 are expected to increase by nearly 20%, UK-wide, by the year 2074, with the population aged 65–84 years more than doubling and the population aged over 85 years quadrupling over the same period (HM Treasury, 2005c, p.7). Within Scotland, the number of people of working age is projected to fall by 7% between 2004 and 2031; with over 75s rising by 75% within the same time period (General Register Officer For Scotland, 2005). These trends are increasingly being acknowledged in government policy, which now recognises that the ageing working population could have a significant impact on both product and labour markets. Future policies could focus on a number of different areas: • labour market reform to encourage later retirement • tax and other incentives for older age groups • pensions policy • incentives for lone parents to participate in the labour markets • softer policies to reduce age discrimination and encourage employers to hire and retain older workers. Gender also plays an important role – men and women have different patterns of participation in the labour market. A recent report (▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇, 2006) on labour force projections suggests that economic activity among women aged 50–64 years is likely to increase at a healthy rate until the year 2020, with younger cohorts of women entering the workforce and older women continuing to be economically active beyond the current retirement age of 65. Moreover, recent growth in economic activity rates for men aged 50–64 are projected to continue over the same period. Lengthened working lives will need to be supported by lifelong learning to ensure workers of all ages have the skills...