IN CONTEXT. The Falkirk Council area is situated right at the centre of Scotland. It has a growing population which, according to the preliminary results of the 2011 Census, is now 156,000, making it the 11th largest council in Scotland. Our area is one of the best connected in Scotland, equidistant between Glasgow and Edinburgh and at the heart of the motorway network. This context statement seeks to provide a background to our area a whole and areas within it, looking at past trends and future challenges that will affect and have an impact on our area in the short, medium and longer term. The recent economic uncertainty makes it difficult to forecast future trends and anticipate what may happen to our communities in the short term. However we remain committed to our long term vision. Our area has faced, and overcome, major challenges before. Our ability to adapt and react to changing circumstances will stand us in good stead to ensure that there will be a thriving and prosperous future for our area and our communities. The first results from the 2011 Census show the population of Falkirk Council area as 156,0001. This is higher than the last pre-Census population estimate from National Records of Scotland (NRS) which gave the 2011 population as 154,380. The population of our area has now been increasing for almost 20 years after many years of little change. The population has grown by over 10,000 since the last Census in 2001 – or 7.4% – compared to an increase in Scotland of 4.6%. Based on the previous 2010 mid year estimate of population from NRS, the population is projected to increase further to 157,200 by 2015, 163,900 by 2025 and 168,700 by 2035 (see Figure 1). The growing population presents a key challenge to all Community Planning partners for service provision across the Council area. 1 ▇▇▇▇://▇▇▇.▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇▇.▇▇▇.▇▇/documents/censusresults/release1a/rel1asb.pdf Source: National Records of Scotland mid year estimates of population 1981-2010 (Crown Copyright) 2010 based population projections 2010-2035 (Crown Copyright) Much of this growth has been driven by net in-migration, with the Falkirk area being attractive to in-migrants due to competitive house prices compared to surrounding areas, the variety of new build properties and good sustainable transport links. Average net in- migration since 2001 has been 725 per year. Further details and analysis of our population is provided at Appendix 1. The number of births in our area has been higher than the number of deaths since 2004, which also contributes to population growth. Of course, not all areas have grown or will grow equally. At a local level, growth is largely determined by the level of new house building. As shown in Table 1, work carried out for the Local Housing Strategy and the Local Development Plan on a 2008 base, showed that up to 2018, all areas except Grangemouth will have an increase in population, with the ▇▇▇▇▇ & Bonnybridge and Polmont & Rural South areas growing by over 10%. By 2033, both Falkirk and Grangemouth are expected to show a decrease in population but ▇▇▇▇▇ & Bonnybridge could grow by over a quarter and Polmont and Rural South by over 35%. This changing distribution of the population will have implications for service provision.
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